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How Bad May Be The Lending Crisis? I went to your very interesting meeting yesterday at which Joe Brown founder of Milestone Mortgage who walked us through the start and what he sees as the finish of the current lending crisis. The following originates from notes I took. After the crash from the tech sector and 9-11 our economy was in a arena of hurt. The Fed started cutting the discount rate and continued cutting prior to the discount rate reduced over 5% on the relatively short period of time. What resulted was more and more people buying homes because cost of money was less expensive. Out came house buyers – they were just about everywhere. The price of money was low and several lenders saw the opportunity that looked too good to be true. Not only were buyers everywhere but these were driving the cost of homes in many markets round the country. What came next would be a gap. Prices were skyrocketing while wages were relatively stable. Lenders saw another opportunity – home equity loans. In markets where home prices were rising well over 25% a year people who bought homes saw the worthiness with their homes 50% or maybe more higher. Many saw the benefit of getting home equity loans being a means to cover off card debt or spend money on accommodation as well as obtain a boat or a brand new car for cash. Can you smell the undeniable fact that was over the horizon yet? Builders were putting homes up all over the place. Lenders yet again saw a tremendous opportunity to create money. They started loosening their standards for lending. No job? No savings? Need a house? No problem! Stated ome loans no money down loans creative 100% financing adjustable rate loans interest only loans 40 year loans – you name it someone had it. See any problems yet? In 2004 69% of Americans owned a home. This was the greatest rate of ownership ever. Here is a hint to the first of many problems. Although mortgage ers have a significant bit of regulation from federal while stating authorities mortgage brokers had very little oversight. These creative loans which probably should not are actually made were bundled the loans and sold to investors. Although I stated that mortgage brokers aren’t very regulated these were not the one problem. If there weren’t lenders to provide these loans the brokers would have no spot . Greed got the best of many people. Not a lot of individuals are paying the price. One really nasty outcome is someone going on the closing table and discovering their supply of money dried up overnight. All of the sudden certain markets stabilized. Then they went backwards. The bubble burst. Markets in California Arizona Colorado and Florida saw housing prices decrease. Not only did the drop nonetheless they dropped like rocks in certain areas. With houses not worth as much the creative loans were worth less. Lenders couldn’t sell their bundled loans to the value in the loans. Lenders were selling loans at the loss – they owed money at closing. This was the main cause from the collapse and lenders started going beyond business. The media got wind of of this and made it look like we a national disaster on our hands. Enter the truth. Of the approximately $10 trillion of mortgage debt in our country only a touch is affected. Of the 6000000 clients who had bought during this creative lending period only around 15% were affected from the bad lending practices. Is the crisis over? No it isn’t. There is going to be more lenders going under and much more foreclosures in lots of markets. However our economy is extremely strong. We have low unemployment and strong job growth. Many economists begin to see the U.S. during this difficult period just fine. Private equity is flowing in to the troubled lending industry. Countrywide got a $2 billion infusion from of America. The Fed is staying away from this except to drop the discount rate slightly. That is often a excellent thing. If we got involved in the Federal bail-out like back in the 80s during the S&L crisis it might cause inflation which may lead to some recession. So what’s up now for borrowers? Those with bad credit little or no ome with out savings probably won’t be buying houses. People who are able to put 20% or even more down and who've a good credit score will continue to have loans. Markets will correct and investors will go in and start buying “cheap” properties. Homes will again be affordable for regular home buyers as well. By the way just because the media has created the national housing market look want it is within terrible shape it isn’t. As a whole it isn’t healthy but pockets are going to do great. Many markets like Austin and San Antonio are quite healthy even now plus they look to be so. What it appears like is always that we've another 6-9 months of problems before many markets turn around. Will everything be roses after that? Probably not but we won’t be feeling so much pain. - cash advance of gsis e card
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