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How Bad Could Be The Lending Crisis? I went to some very interesting meeting yesterday at which Joe Brown founder of Milestone Mortgage who walked us from the start and what he sees as the finish of the current lending crisis. The following originates from notes I took. After the crash of the tech sector and 9-11 our economy was inside a world of hurt. The Fed started cutting the discount rate and continued cutting prior to the discount rate reduced over 5% more than a relatively short amount of time. What resulted was lots more people buying homes se the price of money was less expensive. Out came homeowners – these folks were just about everywhere. The cost of money was low and a few lenders saw a chance that looked too good to be true. Not only were buyers everywhere but we were holding driving in the expense of homes in many markets round the country. What came next would happen to be a gap. Prices were skyrocketing while wages were relatively stable. Lenders saw another opportunity – home equity loans. In markets where home prices were reasing more than 25% a year individuals who bought homes saw the worth of the homes 50% or maybe more higher. Many saw the benefit of having home equity loans being a means to pay off card debt or purchase rental property or even purchase a boat or a brand new car for cash. Can you smell the thing that was within the horizon yet? Builders were putting homes up all on the place. Lenders once again saw a tremendous opportunity to produce money. They started loosening their standards for lending. No job? No savings? Need a house? No problem! Stated ome loans no money down loans creative 100% financing adjustable rate loans interest only loans 40 year loans – you name it someone had it. See any problems yet? In 2004 69% of Americans owned a home. This was the best rate of ownership ever. Here is often a hint towards the first of many problems. Although mortgage ers have quite a bit of regulation from federal assuring authorities mortgage brokers had very little oversight. These creative loans which probably should never are actually made were bundled the loans and sold to investors. Although I stated that mortgage brokers aren’t very regulated they were not the only real problem. If there weren’t lenders to provide these loans the brokers would don't have any destination . Greed got the most effective of countless people. Not a lot of individuals are paying the price. One really nasty result's someone going on the closing table and discovering their source of money dried up overnight. All of the sudden certain markets stabilized. Then they went backwards. The bubble burst. Markets in California Arizona Colorado and Florida saw housing prices decrease. Not only did the drop however they dropped like rocks in some areas. With houses not worth as much the creative loans were worth less. Lenders couldn’t sell their bundled loans for the value with the loans. Lenders were selling loans in a loss – they owed money at closing. This was the reason with the collapse and lenders started going from business. The media got wind coming from all on this making it it seem like we were built with a national disaster on our hands. Enter the truth. Of the approximately $10 trillion of mortgage debt within our country merely a touch is affected. Of the 6000000 clients who had bought during this creative lending period only around 15% were affected through the bad lending practices. Is the crisis over? No it isn’t. There will be more lenders going under and more foreclosures in several markets. However our economy is very strong. We have low unemployment and strong job growth. Many economists see the U.S. during this difficult period just fine. Private equity is flowing in the troubled lending industry. Countrywide got a $2 billion infusion from of America. The Fed is staying out of this except to decrease the discount rate slightly. That is often a very good thing. If we got involved in a very Federal bail-out like back inside 80s during the S&L crisis it might result in inflation which could lead to some recession. So what’s up now for borrowers? Those with bad credit little or no ome and no savings probably won’t be buying houses. People who can put 20% or even more down and that have a good credit rating continue to obtain loans. Markets will correct and investors will will wind up in and commence buying “cheap” properties. Homes will again be affordable for regular house buyers as well. By the way just for the reason why that media has created the nation's housing marketplace look like it is within terrible shape it isn’t. As a whole it isn’t healthy but pockets are doing great. Many markets like Austin and San Antonio can be healthy even now and so they look to keep so. What it appears like is that we've got another 6-9 months of problems before many markets turn around. Will all of it be roses after that? Probably not but we won’t be feeling so much pain.
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